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Prediction for CME (2022-08-17T14:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-17T14:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21245/-1
CME Note: An eruption likely associated with an M2.0-class flare from AR3078. The eruption is seen in SDO 171/193/304 as a brightening with associated opening field lines and ejecta that diverge and deflect partially to the south and partially to the west, likely due to the presence of a coronal hole. The CME was observed to be bright and fairly wide in running difference imagery. Slowly-varying magnetic component rotations were observed to start around 2022-08-20T09:16Z with a potential arrival around 2022-08-20T04:53Z due to the presence of a sharp but weak increase in solar wind density and temperature, but the solar wind data is rather inconclusive of showing a clear interplanetary shock. With an IPS (beginning of an ICME sheath signature) occurring around 2022-08-20T16:00Z, it is possible that there is a complex signature with more than one ICME arrival occurring between 2022-08-20 and 2022-08-21.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-19T21:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-08-17T19:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 800
Longitude (deg): 24W
Latitude (deg): 33S
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes: Used a merged fit of 2 CMEs evident. Although model gives a miss at Earth, faint halo on C3 gives a chance may catch N flank of CME. Low confidence.
Space weather advisor: Duty forecaster

Lead Time: 39.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-08-18T06:00Z

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